Table A9: Transit City LRT Schemes
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Sheppard East -Don Mills - Morningside |
Scarborough Kennedy - Sheppard |
Eglinton Jane-Kennedy |
Finch West - Spadina Subway - Humber College |
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Route km |
13 |
10 |
19 |
10 |
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New route km |
13 |
3 |
19 |
10 |
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Underground km |
1 |
1 |
11 |
0 |
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Underground stations |
1 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
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Surface or elevated stations (4) |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
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Road lane km lost |
12 |
0 |
8 |
10 |
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LRT Cars (1) |
35 |
35 |
80 |
20 |
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Infrastructure Capital Cost $m NPV |
$ -1,000 |
$ -980 |
$ -4,900 |
$ -1,000 |
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Rolling Stock Capital cost $m NPV |
$ -147 |
$ -147 |
$ -336 |
$ -84 |
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Operating Costs (incremental) $m NPV (2) |
$ -794 |
$ -288 |
$ -1,622 |
$ -575 |
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Bus costs reduced $m |
$ 403 |
$ 35 |
$ 570 |
$ 271 |
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TOTAL COSTS NPV |
$ -1,538 |
$ -1,380 |
$ -6,288 |
$ -1,388 |
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Total daily riders 2023 (3) |
55,000 |
60,000 |
176,000 |
54,700 |
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New riders 2023 |
25% |
25% |
25% |
25% |
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New daily riders 2023 |
13,750 |
15,000 |
44,000 |
13,675 |
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Incremental revenues $m NPV |
$ 190 |
$ 207 |
$ 607 |
$ 189 |
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NET FUNDING GAP $m NPV |
$ -1,348 |
$ -1,173 |
$ -5,680 |
$ -1,199 |
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Road user benefits $m NPV |
$ 237 |
$ 259 |
$ 759 |
$ 236 |
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Road user dis-benefits $m NPV |
$ -83 |
$ - |
$ -55 |
$ -69 |
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Passenger benefits per existing rider |
$1.50 |
$2.00 |
$1.50 |
$1.50 |
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Passenger benefits per new rider |
$0.75 |
$1.00 |
$0.75 |
$0.75 |
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Passenger Benefits $m NPV |
$ 498 |
$ 725 |
$ 1,594 |
$ 495 |
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TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV |
$ 842 |
$ 1,190 |
$ 2,905 |
$ 851 |
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NET BENEFITS $m NPV |
$ -696 |
$ -189 |
$ -3,383 |
$ -537 |
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BENEFIT COST RATIO |
0.55 |
0.86 |
0.46 |
0.61 |
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Growth to 2033 with complementary policies |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
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New daily riders 2033 |
27,500 |
30,000 |
88,000 |
27,350 |
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Net cost per new daily rider 2033 |
$ -49,027 |
$ -39,083 |
$ -64,549 |
$ -43,850 |
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(1) Fleet requirements are derived from TTC's estimates as set out in the report of November 14 2007, with the numbers reduced pro-rata to reflect shorter line lengths. |
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(2) For Scarborough RT, Incremental O&M cost for the extension from 3.5-km McCowan to Sheppard. |
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(3) Ridership figures are from TTC's November 14 2007 report. |
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(4) Excludes simple unstaffed surface stations, without elevators, escalators, or station buildings |
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Cost and benefit assumptions |
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Cost per LRT car $m |
$-4.20 |
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O&M cost per km - surface LRT $m/yr |
$-2.50 |
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O&M cost per km - underground LRT $m/yr |
$-1.00 |
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O&M cost per underground station $m/yr |
$-1.00 |
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O&M cost per surface or elevated station $m/yr |
$-0.50 |
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Average fare per new daily rider |
$2.00 |
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Road user benefit per new daily rider |
$2.50 |
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|
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Road disbenefit per lane km per day $ |
$ -1,000 |
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|
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Annualization factor |
300 |
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NPV factor |
23 |
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Subway extensions and LRT lines will usually replace one or more bus routes. The offsetting saving will depend on how TTC chooses to modify the bus network:
- The Sheppard LRT will replace about 70% of the mileage of the Sheppard East bus and the Scarborough Centre Rocket. According to TTC's data, these routes cost about $25 million per year to operate, so if they are 70% replaced, then the savings will be about $403 million NPV or about $31 million NPV per LRT route-km.
- The Scarborough RT extension will not replace any specific route, however, it should displace peak-hour buses on several routes. We assume a saving of $10 million NPV per incremental route-km or $35 million NPV.
- The Eglinton LRT will replace about 60% of the Eglinton West and Eglinton East routes, for savings of $570 million NPV or $30 million NPV per LRT route-km. With stations spaced 600 to 800 meters apart, TTC will probably need to continue operating a bus service on the route, although at reduced frequency. The Metrolinx BCA gives a much higher figure, suggesting the scheme will reduce bus operating costs by $109.7 million per year.
- The Finch LRT will replace about half of the Finch West bus, saving $271 million NPV or about $27 million NPV per LRT route-km.