Appendix E: Amendment No. 2 and the 2041 forecasts

The table below compares the original forecasts for 2031 (shown as “2031A” in the table) from the Growth Plan introduced in 2006 to the updated forecasts for 2031 (“2031B”) from Amendment no. 2 to the Growth Plan. In most cases, the population and employment forecasts have increased. In no case did the updated forecasts result in a decline in population or employment.

When the 2031A and 2031B forecasts are compared, there are some noticeable divergences. In some municipalities the “B” forecasts are at least 10% greater than the “A” forecasts, in other municipalities there is little or no difference. However, an alternative and more telling method to evaluate the differences between the 2031 forecasts is to focus on the change in the total amount of growth, rather than on the total population or employment amounts. The column to the far right indicates the difference between the A-B forecasts and the forecast increase based on the original 2001-2031 forecasts. The “B” forecasts increased the City of Toronto’s population growth by 22% or 110,000 people compared to the original forecasts. The greatest difference between the A-B forecasts and the forecast growth 2001-2031 is in County of Peterborough, where the “B” forecasts have increased the forecast population growth by 180%.

Population

 

Population Forecast 20011

Population Forecast 2031A2

Population Forecast 2031B2

A-B Difference

A-B Difference

(%)

Forecast Population Growth

2001-2031A

% Difference in growth between 'Forecast Population Increase 2001-2031A’ and 'A-B Difference'

City of Toronto

2,590,000

3,080,000

3,190,000

+110,000

4%

490,000

22%

Region of Durham

530,000

960,000

970,000

+10,000

1%

430,000

2%

Region of York

760,000

1,500,000

1,590,000

+90,000

6%

740,000

12%

Region of Peel

1,030,000

1,640,000

1,770,000

+130,000

8%

610,000

21%

Region of Halton

390,000

780,000

820,000

+40,000

5%

390,000

10%

City of Hamilton

510,000

660,000

680,000

+20,000

3%

150,000

13%

INNER RING

5,810,000

8,620,000

9,020,000

+400,000

5%

2,810,000

14%

County of Northumberland

80,000

96,000

100,000

+4,000

4%

16,000

25%

County of Peterborough

56,000

61,000

70,000

+9,000

15%

5,000

180%

City of Peterborough

74,000

88,000

103,000

+15,000

17%

14,000

107%

City of Kawartha Lakes

72,000

100,000

100,000

0

0%

28,000

0%

County of Simcoe

254,000

416,000

416,000

0

0%

162,000

0%

City of Barrie

108,000

210,000

210,000

0

0%

102,000

0%

City of Orillia

30,000

41,000

41,000

0

0%

11,000

0%

County of Dufferin

53,000

80,000

80,000

0

0%

27,000

0%

County of Wellington

85,000

122,000

122,000

0

0%

37,000

0%

City of Guelph

110,000

175,000

177,000

+2,000

1%

65,000

3%

Region of Waterloo

456,000

729,000

742,000

+13,000

2%

273,000

5%

County of Brant

35,000

47,000

49,000

+2,000

4%

12,000

17%

City of Brantford

94,000

126,000

139,000

+13,000

10%

32,000

41%

County of Haldimand

46,000

56,000

57,000

+1,000

2%

10,000

10%

Region of Niagara

427,000

511,000

543,000

+32,000

6%

84,000

38%

OUTER RING

1,980,000

2,858,000

2,949,000

+91,000

3%

878,000

10%

GGH TOTAL

7,790,000

11,478,000

11,969,000

+491,000

4%

3,688,000

13%

Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.

Employment

 

Employment Forecast 20011

Employment Forecast 2031A2

Employment Forecast 2031B2

A-B Difference

A-B Difference

(%)

Forecast Employment Growth

2001-2031A

% Difference in growth between 'Forecast Employment Increase 2001-2031A’ and

'A-B Difference'

City of Toronto

1,440,000

1,640,000

1,660,000

+20,000

1%

160,000

13%

Region of Durham

190,000

350,000

360,000

+10,000

3%

390,000

3%

Region of York

390,000

780,000

790,000

+10,000

1%

200,000

5%

Region of Peel

530,000

870,000

880,000

+10,000

1%

340,000

3%

Region of Halton

780,000

390,000

390,000

0

0%

200,000

0%

City of Hamilton

660,000

300,000

310,000

+10,000

3%

90,000

11%

INNER RING

2,950,000

4,330,000

4,390,000

+60,000

1%

1,380,000

4%

County of Northumberland

29,000

33,000

36,000

+3,000

9%

4,000

75%

County of Peterborough

16,000

18,000

20,000

+2,000

11%

2,000

100%

City of Peterborough

37,000

42,000

52,000

+10,000

24%

5,000

200%

City of Kawartha Lakes

20,000

27,000

29,000

+2,000

7%

7,000

29%

County of Simcoe

85,000

132,000

132,000

0

0%

47,000

0%

City of Barrie

53,000

101,000

101,000

0

0%

48,000

0%

City of Orillia

16,000

21,000

21,000

0

0%

5,000

0%

County of Dufferin

19,000

27,000

29,000

+2,000

7%

8,000

25%

County of Wellington

36,000

54,000

54,000

0

0%

18,000

0%

City of Guelph

36,000

92,000

94,000

+2,000

2%

29,000

7%

Region of Waterloo

236,000

366,000

366,000

0

0%

130,000

0%

County of Brant

16,000

19,000

22,000

+3,000

16%

3,000

100%

City of Brantford

39,000

53,000

67,000

+14,000

26%

14,000

100%

County of Haldimand

17,000

20,000

22,000

+2,000

10%

3,000

67%

Region of Niagara

186,000

218,000

235,000

+17,000

8%

32,000

53%

OUTER RING

870,000

1,223,000

1,280,000

+57,000

5%

355,000

16%

GGH TOTAL

3,810,000

5,553,000

5,670,000

+117,000

2%

1,735,000

7%

1 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, January 2012, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.
2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, Office Consolidation, June 2013, Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure.