Union Pearson Express

Table A3: Union Pearson Express

 

 

Infrastructure Capital Cost $m NPV

 $ -456

Rolling Stock Capital Cost $m NPV

 $ -75

O&M (cost) $m NPV

 $ -306

TOTAL COSTS $m NPV

 $ -837

New daily riders 2023

6,000

Diverted daily riders 2023 (from bus)

6,000

Revenues $m NPV

 $ 1,511

FUNDING GAP $m NPV

 $ 674

 

 

Road user benefits $m NPV

 $ 504

TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV

 $ 2,015

NET BENEFITS $m NPV

 $ 1,178

Benefit:Cost Ratio

 2.41

2033 incremental daily ridership

12,000

Net cost per new 2033 daily rider

Nil

Annualization factor

365

NPV factor

23

Road benefit per diverted rider

 $10.00

Average TTC fare

 $ 2

Average UP Express Fare

 $15.00

 

The route is approximately 25km in length, with a trip time of 25 minutes. It will be operated using two-car DMUs running every 15 minutes. Expected daily ridership is 4,000 passengers. Metrolinx expects the line to divert 1.2 million car trips in 2015 onto rail, or about 4,000 per day.

Capital Costs

Infrastructure capital costs are stated on the Metrolinx website[1] as $456 million in 2010 dollars. As the line is currently under construction, there is no reason to reduce it to derive an NPV.

The service could be operated with 4 units, with 5-minute layovers at the terminals. Given that these units will operate 18 hours a day, every day, it would be prudent to have three spare units, one for maintenance, one as a “standby” unit, and one for long-term maintenance. So the requirement is for 7 units. According to the Metrolinx website, it has purchased “18 diesel multiple units” but this presumably means nine 2-car DMUs with 18 cars in total. Other news stories refer to a contract for 6 units, costing $75 million, including spare parts etc. It seems likely that Metrolinx plans to operate with 5 or even 6 units in service, allowing for longer layovers. This would explain the purchase of 9 units.

It is not entirely clear whether or not the Metrolinx figure of $456 million includes rolling stock capital costs. There may also be some discretion in allocating infrastructure costs to UP Express, or to the Georgetown South project, which operates over the same line. 

Operating Costs

We assume Metrolinx plans to operate with two-man crews, costing $110 per hour, although one-person operation should be perfectly possible. With 6 units in service, 18 hours per day, and staff costs of $110 per train hour, driver costs would total $4.3 million per year or about $100 million NPV.

According to the GO Electrification Study, maintenance costs per DMU car are about $260,000 per year, so costs to maintain the 18-car fleet will be about $4.6 million per year or $108 million NPV.

Table 8C-2-D in GO’s Technical Appendix 8C gives a cost of $918,398 per year for electric power for the Airport Rail Link, or about $23 million NPV. Diesel costs might be 25% higher, so $1.25 million per year or about $29 million NPV.

In addition, there will be costs to operate station facilities at Union, Bloor, and Pearson, and to maintain the track infrastructure. We understand UP Express is planning to have its own lounge facility at Union Station, which we find unusual, given the high train frequency. We estimate that these, together with UP Express management overheads, insurance, and other miscellaneous costs will add a further $3 million per year or $69 million NPV.

Total O&M costs would therefore be $13.15 million per year or $306 million NPV.