Transit City LRT Schemes

Table A9: Transit City LRT Schemes

 

Sheppard East -Don Mills - Morningside

Scarborough Kennedy - Sheppard

Eglinton Jane-Kennedy

Finch West – Spadina Subway – Humber College

Route km

13

10

19

10

New route km

13

3

19

10

Underground km

1

1

11

0

Underground stations

1

0

12

0

Surface or elevated stations (4)

0

8

0

0

Road lane km lost

12

0

8

10

LRT Cars (1)

35

35

80

20

Infrastructure Capital Cost $m NPV

 $ -1,000

 $ -980

 $ -4,900

 $ -1,000

Rolling Stock Capital cost $m NPV

 $ -147

 $ -147

 $ -336

 $ -84

Operating Costs (incremental) $m NPV (2)

 $ -794

 $ -288

 $ -1,622

 $ -575

Bus costs reduced $m

 $ 403

 $ 35

 $ 570

 $ 271

TOTAL COSTS NPV

 $ -1,538

 $ -1,380

 $ -6,288

 $ -1,388

Total daily riders 2023 (3)

55,000

60,000

176,000

54,700

New riders 2023

25%

25%

25%

25%

New daily riders 2023

13,750

15,000

44,000

13,675

Incremental revenues $m NPV

 $ 190

 $ 207

 $ 607

 $ 189

NET FUNDING GAP $m NPV

 $ -1,348

 $ -1,173

 $ -5,680

 $ -1,199

Road user benefits $m NPV

 $ 237

 $ 259

 $ 759

 $ 236

Road user dis-benefits $m NPV

 $ -83

 $ -

 $ -55

 $ -69

Passenger benefits per existing rider

 $1.50

 $2.00  

 $1.50

 $1.50

Passenger benefits per new rider

 $0.75

 $1.00

 $0.75

 $0.75

Passenger Benefits $m NPV

 $ 498

 $ 725

 $ 1,594

 $ 495

TOTAL BENEFITS $m NPV

 $ 842

 $ 1,190

 $ 2,905

 $ 851

NET BENEFITS $m NPV

 $ -696

 $ -189

 $ -3,383

 $ -537

BENEFIT COST RATIO

 0.55

 0.86

 0.46

 0.61

Growth to 2033 with complementary policies

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

New daily riders 2033

27,500

30,000

88,000

27,350

Net cost per new daily rider 2033

 $ -49,027

 $ -39,083

 $ -64,549

 $ -43,850

(1) Fleet requirements are derived from TTC’s estimates as set out in the report of November 14 2007, with the numbers reduced pro-rata to reflect shorter line lengths.

(2) For Scarborough RT, Incremental O&M cost for the extension from 3.5-km McCowan to Sheppard.

(3) Ridership figures are from TTC's November 14 2007 report.

 

 

(4) Excludes simple unstaffed surface stations, without elevators, escalators, or station buildings

Cost and benefit assumptions

 

 

 

 

Cost per LRT car $m

 $-4.20

 

 

 

O&M cost per km - surface LRT $m/yr

 $-2.50

 

 

 

O&M cost per km - underground LRT $m/yr

 $-1.00

 

 

 

O&M cost per underground station $m/yr

 $-1.00

 

 

 

O&M cost per surface or elevated station $m/yr

 $-0.50

 

 

 

Average fare per new daily rider

 $2.00

 

 

 

Road user benefit per new daily rider

 $2.50

 

 

 

Road disbenefit per lane km per day $

 $ -1,000

 

 

 

Annualization factor

 300

 

 

 

NPV factor

 23

 

 

 

 

Subway extensions and LRT lines will usually replace one or more bus routes. The offsetting saving will depend on how TTC chooses to modify the bus network:

  • The Sheppard LRT will replace about 70% of the mileage of the Sheppard East bus and the Scarborough Centre Rocket. According to TTC’s data, these routes cost about $25 million per year to operate, so if they are 70% replaced, then the savings will be about $403 million NPV or about $31 million NPV per LRT route-km.
  • The Scarborough RT extension will not replace any specific route, however, it should displace peak-hour buses on several routes. We assume a saving of $10 million NPV per incremental route-km or $35 million NPV.
  • The Eglinton LRT will replace about 60% of the Eglinton West and Eglinton East routes, for savings of $570 million NPV or $30 million NPV per LRT route-km. With stations spaced 600 to 800 meters apart, TTC will probably need to continue operating a bus service on the route, although at reduced frequency. The Metrolinx BCA gives a much higher figure, suggesting the scheme will reduce bus operating costs by $109.7 million per year.
  • The Finch LRT will replace about half of the Finch West bus, saving $271 million NPV or about $27 million NPV per LRT route-km.