Analysis of Potential Lakeshore GO Rail Ridership Growth

Table A2: Potential Lakeshore GO Rail Ridership Growth

 

 

Peak Riders per year thousands

Non-Peak Riders per year thousands

Total Riders

Total Non-peak trip time (minutes)

Non-peak riders Growth

New daily non-peak riders thousands

Non-peak Riders per day thousands

Weekday Riders (thousands

Revenue Increment per year at $6 fare (millions)

Revenue Increment NPV

Average load per Non-peak train

Non-peak trains per weekday

2010

Hourly

 15,000

 11,000

 26,000

60

 

 

 30.1

 90.1

 

 

75.3

40

2013

Half Hourly

 

 13,200

 28,200

50

20%

 6.0

 36.2

 96.2

 $ 13.2

 

60.3

60

2023

Underlying Growth

 30,000

 26,400

 56,400

50

100%

 36.2

 72.3

 192.3

 $ 79.2

 

120.5

60

2023

Electric Locos

 30,000

 28,085

 58,085

47

6.4%

 4.6

 76.9

 196.9

 $ 10.1

 $ 233

128.2

60

2033

Electric Locos

 45,000

 

 

 

 

 6.9

 115.4

 295.4

 

 

 

 

2023

EMUs

 

 30,698

 

43

9%

 7.2

 84.1

 

 $ 15.7

 $ 361

140.2

60

2023

Quarter Hourly EMUs

 

 47,143

 

28

54%

 45.1

 129.2

 

 $ 98.7

 $ 2,269

107.6

120

 

Cumulative 2023

 

 47,143

 

 

 

 63.8

 129.2

 249.2

 $ 124

 $ 2,863

 

 

2033

Quarter Hourly EMUs

 45,000

 70,413

 

 

100%

 63.8

 192.9

 372.9

 

 

160.8

120

 

Incremental riders 2013 to 2033

 

 

 

 

 162.8